Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 20 brokers · 429 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-27.
The street models EQT, the largest US natural gas producer, as converting a modest price-and-volume recovery into rapid balance-sheet repair: forward models carry net debt down sharply each year while free cash flow compounds. Realized gas prices sit below Henry Hub on Appalachian basis, so the top line is driven as much by volume growth as by the benchmark. Near-term P&L coverage is deep at up to 20 brokers, but the forward drivers — prices, midstream, per-unit costs — rest on fewer models. The Equitrans-derived midstream segment is now in the model but remains a small slice of a still-commodity-gas story.
Deleveraging is the model's centerpiece — net debt falls every year as free cash flow compounds
Free cash flow is modeled up ~34% in FY-2026 and net debt drops roughly a third that year, with brokers carrying the decline through FY-2028. Capital expenditures rise ~15% in FY-2026, so the deleveraging is funded by cash generation, not spending restraint.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash flow | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA | $5.61bn | $6.44bn | $6.17bn | $7.21bn | +14.6% | 12 |
| Capital expenditures | $2.37bn | $2.73bn | $2.82bn | $2.81bn | +15.0% | 16 |
| Free cash flow | $2.61bn | $3.52bn | $3.25bn | $3.95bn | +34.6% | 13 |
| Balance sheet | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net debt | $7.66bn | $4.98bn | $3.23bn | $986.62m | -35.0% | 13 |
The growth engine: gas-price recovery plus steady volume lift oil, NGL and gas revenue
Realized gas prices run below Henry Hub — about $3.09 versus $3.43 in FY-2025 — reflecting Appalachian basis. Total oil, NGL and gas revenue is modeled up ~14% in FY-2026 on a mix of higher prices and low-single-digit volume growth.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Henry Hub - Natural gas price($) | $3.45 | $3.65 | $3.46 | $3.74 | +5.8% | 17 |
| Natural gas price before hedging($) | $2.91 | $3.11 | $3.03 | $3.68 | +6.8% | 18 |
| Volume | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gas equivalent production(Bcfe) | 2.37bn mcfe | 2.46bn mcfe | 2.47bn mcfe | 2.55bn mcfe | +3.8% | 20 |
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue - Natural Gas | $6.94bn | $7.94bn | $7.82bn | $8.86bn | +14.5% | 18 |
| Revenue - Oil, NGL and Natural Gas | $7.62bn | $8.73bn | $8.47bn | $9.53bn | +14.5% | 18 |
Brokers agree near-term but split on the FY-2027/28 gas-price payoff
The spread maps to the out-year gas-price assumption: bearish models keep EQT levered into FY-2028 while the bullish ones carry it to net cash.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue - Natural Gas | FY-2027E | $7.91bn | $7.66bn–$8.26bn | $5.89bn–$9.02bn | 12 |
| Free cash flow | FY-2027E | $3.41bn | $2.56bn–$3.58bn | $2.02bn–$4.79bn | 11 |
| Net debt | FY-2028E | $621.70m | $237,257–$1.48bn | $-1.49bn–$6.15bn | 10 |
Midstream (Equitrans) is real but small — the model is still a commodity-gas bet
The Equitrans-derived pipeline and midstream revenue line is modeled as real and stable but small — a minor fraction of oil, NGL and gas revenue across the forecast. The forward model remains overwhelmingly a bet on gas price times volume, not on midstream fees.
Coverage is deep on the P&L but thins on the forward drivers
Headline P&L lines carry up to 20 brokers, but forward drivers are thinner — realized price after hedging and midstream rest on roughly a dozen, and several per-unit and reserve lines on just 2-3. FY-2028 figures generally reflect about 10 models. Revisions are recent (late July 2026), so the concern is depth, not staleness.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.